In quite a remarkable post, Michael Moore predicts that Donald J. Trump will win the presidential election come November. He talked about 5 main reasons. Here are our thoughts.
1. The Rust Belt Brexit strategy. He argues that Trump has to win 4 winable states that are swing states. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That’s 64 electoral votes, and that’s enough to put him over the top.
We know that about 40 states never change. Texas always votes Republican. California, New York and Illinois always vote Democrat. So there are only 10 states that you need to focus on to win the election. Trump’s team is hoping to expand that number to 14 states. They see that the polling data has him within the margin of victory in those states and it’s not insurmountable, especially since Hillary has been uninspiring and hasn’t garnered the crowds and support that we see on the ground with Trump. We can see Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan going Trump, but not Wisconsin. That’ll be hard to flip. Wisconsin has voted Democrat in the last 4 presidential elections, but anything is possible, as we’ve seen with this highly unusual election year. Hillary Clinton has yet to make a campaign stop in Wisconsin. After the DNC convention, she hasn’t been back. They are taking Wisconsin for granted. So, we’ll see.
2. The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. He argues that white men are fed up and do not want a woman to win after 240 years of male rule. He argues that there are online groups of white males that are enraged against women that won’t date them and want revenge against all this feminism that’s been shoved down their throats.
We disagree. Our country is not angry at women. It’s just that Hillary is not the right woman. Sure, there are some online communities that espouse these anti-woman views, but they are a small group. Hillary is just too tainted.
3. The Hillary Problem. Moore argues that Hillary is hugely unpopular and that 70% of voter’s don’t trust her. She represents the establishment and old school politics. She’s hawkish and will start another world war. He argues that young people, especially young women, really don’t like her. He argues that no Democrat nor independent is going to wake up and be excited about going out to vote for her.
We agree here. Hillary is very unpopular. Very. And the fact that she forced Bernie out makes her even more unpopular with young people. The DNC has hitched it’s wagon to the wrong horse. Sure, they made history by nominating a woman, but she is just the wrong woman.
4. The Depressed Sanders Vote. He argues that while most former Bernie supporters will still vote for Hillary, they will do so begrudgingly and in a depressed way. They will not be excited and drag along 5 other people to vote for her. He says they won’t volunteer for her. They aren’t inspired to stay awake and campaign on social media for her. They are “depressed”. He argues that young people don’t support phonies and have zero tolerance for BS.
We agree. She’s uninspiring. She doesn’t motivate young people. If you scroll through Facebook, most young people think she stole the election away from Bernie and are completely depressed and traumatized by this. They have lost interest and hope. Her running mate is also as uninspiring as they come. Moore says she could have selected another female, but decided to play it safe.
5. The Jesse Ventura Effect. Moore argues that people have this underlying mischievous tendency. That everyone is a bit of a closet anarchist and they want to see the system upended. He says that people will vote for Trump, not because they agree with everything he says, but because they can. They feel empowered. The voting booth is the last bastion of absolute anonymity and freedom.
We have encountered this every day. You see people hinting at this in discussion groups, on social media, and at family discussions. They jokingly say, “I’m voting for Trump, let’s just see what happens.” While they laugh and pretend they are joking, there is some underlying truth to some of the ensuing lighthearted discussion. Hillary will be a continuation of Obama, who was a continuation of Bush, was a continuation of Clinton, who was a continuation of Bush and so on. The establishment needs to have their ass kicked and flipped upside down. People are sick of wasting money on endless wars and not helping the poor, broken middle class.
We also would like to add to this disenfranchisement. People feel powerless. That all these elitist politicians are just playing with their lives and livelihoods from their ivory towers. Using the policy they pass to enrich themselves, their foundations, and their friends. And this is all very true. The Bush library, the Clinton Foundation, the wars that benefited Dick Cheney’s companies. It’s all accurate. And it’s disturbing. They want to see all of that end.
We agree with all of these people and would like to see dramatic change. The system has been bought out by special interests and lobbyists and we, the people, need to take our country back.